The S&P 500 maintains cautiously bullish stance as elevated yields continue rising on poor economic data. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.2 vs 49.0 expected; Challenger Job Cuts show 24% YoY increase. November saw ~71,000 planned job cuts (down 53% from October’s spike but higher than Nov 2024). Critical: YTD through November, companies announced 1.17 million cuts—over 50% higher than same period last year and most since pandemic 2020. Key drivers: restructuring/cost-cutting (efficiency drives, mergers, AI/automation), closings (store/plant shutdowns), market/economic conditions (slower demand, higher costs, tariffs, weaker funding, government spending cuts). Jobless claims came in lower in November as Holiday Season means fewer firings. CME FedWatch shows 87.2% probability of 25 bps rate cut driven primarily by weak labor market, though well-behaved PCE makes outcome uncertain. Yields pricing in rate cut with bull steepener—shorter yields dropping faster than longer yields.
Price action suggests upward run if breaking resistance; approaching intersection of two pitchforks with bull steepener supporting equities despite weak fundamentals.
Key Levels: Support at 6,739.19 | Resistance at 6,932.86
