Trading Insights

Macro Outlook

  • Rates & Liquidity: Long-end yields remain the dominant macro variable. A sustained move lower in the US 10Y would materially ease financial conditions and support risk assets.
  • Growth Normalization: Economic drag from 2025 constraints is expected to normalize through 2026 as credit costs ease and consumption stabilizes.
  • Policy Focus: Treasury policy under Secretary Bessent signals increased emphasis on affordability, with rate operations addressing income pressures while deregulation targets input costs.
  • FX Dynamics: Yield compression is limiting FX trend formation, keeping EUR/USD and USD/JPY largely range-bound.
  • Commodities: Structural demand—central bank gold buying and industrial silver usage—continues to support precious metals despite near-term volatility.
  • Crypto Liquidity: BTC and ETH remain constrained by thin liquidity and weak ETF inflows, delaying breakout potential.

Disclaimer

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