Trading Insights

Macro Snapshot

  • Job Cut Crisis: 1.17M cuts YTD (50%+ vs last year)—most since pandemic 2020
  • Manufacturing Recession: ISM PMI 48.2 (below 50 contraction threshold)
  • Rate Cut Priced: 87.2% odds for 25 bps December cut; bull steepener in place
  • AI Displacement: Restructuring/automation driving significant portion of 1.17M job losses
  • Japan Contraction: -2.3% GDP shrinkage Q3 creates medium-term yen weakness despite near-term strength
  • Crypto Paralysis: BTC stalled below $100K, ETH range-bound on rate uncertainty and liquidity concerns
  • Precious Metals Split: Central banks buying gold while ETFs sell; silver awaits AI demand catalyst
  • Double Top Watch: Nasdaq approaching critical technical level after strong earnings season

Disclaimer

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