Trading Insights

Macro Snapshot

  • Data Blackout Deepens: October PPI cancelled—Fed making rate decision tomorrow with fewer data points
  • Four-Front Battle: Trade (tariffs), Regulation (supply constraints), Fiscal dominance ($41T debt), Liquidity crisis (51% Fed balance sheet decline)
  • Fed Balance Sheet: Down to 2020 levels after 3 years QT; RRP drawdown and TGA buildup strangling real economy liquidity
  • Policy Divergence: ECB/BoJ hiking while Fed cuts—dollar strength thesis despite near-term weakness
  • OBBA Provisions: Kicking in should release cash to real economy participants
  • Tariff Strategy: May act as wealth/consumption tax spurring government revenues
  • Crypto Paralysis: BTC/ETH range-bound awaiting tomorrow’s Fed decision catalyst
  • Tomorrow’s Decision: Rate cut highly anticipated but data gaps create uncertainty

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