Trading Insights

Macro Snapshot

  • Hawkish Cut Delivered: Third straight 25 bps cut but Powell declares 3.5-3.75% neutral—”done enough for now”
  • Powell’s BLS Admission: Fed Chair states belief that jobs data is overstated
  • T-Bill Buying Program: Fed switches from all bonds to bills, mechanically increasing bank reserves
  • RRP Buffer Exhausted: $7T MMF dry powder now flows directly into banks, spurring credit growth
  • Oracle’s AI Reckoning: -$10B FCF (vs -$5B expected) on $50B CapEx raises “who pays?” question
  • Nasdaq Correction: Down 1.5% post-Oracle with futures red as AI monetization concerns surface
  • Fed Division: Miran pushing more cuts vs Goolsbee opposing—no consensus on path forward
  • Crypto Dead Money: BTC and ETH unable to rally despite rate cut—liquidity constraints binding

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