Trading Insights

Macro Snapshot

  • Inflation Miss: November CPI printed at 2.7% vs 3.1% expected, lifting near-term rate cut probabilities.
  • Fed Outlook: ~25% odds of a 25bp cut at the next FOMC, though yields remain resilient.
  • BoJ Regime Shift: Rate hike to 0.75% marks a structural pivot away from ultra-loose policy.
  • ECB Catalyst: Today’s ECB decision is the primary near-term driver for EUR/USD.
  • Energy Outlook: Potential US natural gas glut in 2026 may ease future energy inflation despite current bottlenecks.
  • Crypto Liquidity: BTC and ETH remain range-bound amid weak ETF flows and uneven liquidity.

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