Trading Insights

Macro Snapshot

  • $200B MBS Buyback: Trump orders Fannie/Freddie purchases to lower mortgage rates—QE-style move from executive branch
  • Fed MBS Rolloff: Continues dampening housing stimulus effect—proper bazooka would require Fed participation
  • $1.5T Military Budget: 50-60% jump from $900B FY26 to build “dream military”—simultaneous conflict preparation
  • Defense Procurement Surge: $26B shipbuilding, $38B aircraft, $25B munitions already authorized—$1.5T implies massive expansion
  • China Containment: More ships/subs, long-range strike, missile defense targeting simultaneous conflicts
  • Tech Extreme Oversold: Nasdaq RSI 33—China H200 chip demand may catalyze bounce
  • Euro Technical Breakdown: RSI 35 falling below MA with accelerating selling pressure
  • Silver Paper Crisis: Sub-$80 dip reversed but Western markets still ignore Shanghai shortage despite $25K CME margins

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