Trading Insights

Macro Snapshots

  • Labor Market Deterioration: Unemployment at 4.6%, job losses concentrated outside defensive sectors
  • K-Shaped Economy: Services and government employment weakening, while selective sectors remain resilient
  • Policy Offset: Fed–Treasury coordination and deregulation agenda expected to support growth into 2026
  • Yield Volatility: Elevated yields persist, but rate expectations remain fluid ahead of inflation data
  • Japan Risk: Rising debt costs and stimulus-driven issuance complicate BoJ tightening path
  • Liquidity Constraints: Crypto and high-beta assets capped by weak system-wide liquidity, not rates alone
  • Commodities Divergence: Gold supported by central banks; silver driven by industrial supercycle dynamics

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