Markets enter the week with U.S. yields trending lower and expectations nearly locked for a 25 bps Fed rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting. With the probability priced at 96%, attention now shifts to retail sales data, which could reveal how much tariffs are weighing on demand. A negative PPI print hinted at demand destruction, raising hopes that looser policy will offset weakness as fiscal support remains stretched.
- FOMC ahead: 25 bps cut expected, focus on Fed’s forward guidance.
- Retail sales data: A key test of demand destruction from tariffs.
- Inflation dynamics: Negative PPI signals weakness; CPI lag could ease later.
- Safe havens: Gold and silver gain as central banks turn dovish.