U.S. yields rose last week in a sign that bond investors remain skeptical of the Fed’s 25 bps cut. Economic data continues to run stronger than the Fed’s forecasts, with Q3 GDP growth expected at 3.3% and durable goods orders in focus this week. Tariff revenues have surged to an annualized $360 billion, acting as a “stealth tax” on consumption while also boosting fiscal income. Chair Powell’s remarks this week will be crucial as markets weigh whether the Fed is behind the curve in its policy guidance.
- Fed credibility: Data continues to contradict the Fed’s forecasts.
- Fiscal twist: Tariffs surge to $360B annualized, reshaping consumer and tax dynamics.
- Tech diplomacy: $350B U.S.–U.K. deal boosts American tech firms.
- Precious metals split: Gold stalls, while silver breaks higher.