- Fed Division: Sharpest split in years, from no cuts to 125 bps cut proposals.
- AI Arms Race: Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI investment pressures rivals to scale spending.
- Growth Revision: Fed upgrades 2025 GDP forecast to 1.6%, driven by AI capex.
- Inflation Risks: 3.0% target complicated by tariffs and sticky pricing.
- Powell Speech: Chair Powell addresses markets today; tone will be pivotal.
- Metals Diverge: Gold clears $3,700, silver volatile but trending higher.
Markets enter Tuesday focused on the Fed’s growing divisions, with policymakers split between calls for aggressive easing and resistance to further cuts. Chair Powell’s speech later today will be closely watched for clarity after the Fed raised its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.6%, largely on the back of AI-driven investment, while inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.0% due to tariff pressures. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s $100B partnership with OpenAI has ignited an AI infrastructure arms race, boosting tech sentiment and fueling expectations of spillover demand in energy and data centers. In commodities, gold broke above $3,700 and silver extended past $43 as lower rates and resilient growth keep safe-haven demand alive despite stronger U.S. yields.