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Macro Watch

Yields Steady as Treasury Supply and Fed Policy Dominate

Markets remain focused on the interplay between Treasury supply and Fed policy. A strong $70 billion auction of 5-year notes with solid demand underscored appetite for safe assets, even as credit card and auto loan benchmarks adjust lower with Fed rate cuts. Short-term debt issuance continues to weigh on the curve, pushing longer-term yields down. With the Treasury General Account (TGA) now at $690B and targeting $850B, investors are watching for spillover into the real economy. Today’s GDP report will be key, particularly for private consumption and investment, which face crowding-out risks from aggressive fiscal activity.

  • Treasury auction: $70B 5-year notes well received, easing supply fears.
  • GDP data: Focus on private consumption vs crowding-out risks.
  • Intel revival: Seeks Apple partnership after Nvidia and SoftBank backing.
  • Euro weakness: Hawkish Fed tone keeps euro under pressure.
  • Crypto split: ETH consolidates lower while BTC retains inflows.
  • Metals: Gold pauses, silver loses bullish breakout above $44.