The S&P 500 maintains a cautiously bullish tone as yields edge higher amid persistent trade tensions. U.S. national debt has crossed $38 trillion, but the Treasury reports deficit spending at its lowest level since 2019—helped by higher tariff revenues, with the nominal U.S. tariff rate now near 20%. The administration appears to be using tariffs not just as trade policy but as a progressive tax mechanism, with the wealthiest 10%—responsible for half of consumption—bearing most of the impact. Beyond taxation, tariffs also help shield domestic industries from deflationary imports tied to Chinese overcapacity, offering cyclical protection. With rate cuts expected in the coming months, credit growth and employment conditions should gradually improve.
Key Levels: Support at 6,653.9 | Resistance at 6,774.8
Investor Takeaway: RSI at 50 above its MA line trending upward; flat MACD buying pressures. Trade protectionism may provide cyclical support despite fiscal and debt overhangs.