Trading Insights

USD/JPY

BoJ Tightening Risks Collide with Rising Japanese Debt Costs

Outlook: Cautiously Bearish | Timeframe: 1 Day

USD/JPY softened following post-FOMC USD weakness and renewed concerns around yield-curve control dynamics. A BoJ rate hike is expected, which historically supports JPY strength, but rising Japanese debt servicing costs—amplified by the Takaichi government’s stimulus package—complicate the outlook.

Rising domestic yields and fiscal expansion create medium-term vulnerabilities for the yen, even as technical momentum currently favors upside.

Key Levels:
Support: 154.62 | Resistance: 158.23

Investor Takeaway:
Short-term technical strength contrasts with medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability risks for JPY.

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